Steve Drumm's Pick NFL Winners

How To Account For Injuries When Handicapping the NFL!

Sat, 08 Oct 2011 04:44:00 GMT

NFL Handicapper Steve "Cubby" Drumm explains how he accounts for injuries when he handicaps the NFL

One of the most difficult things to account for when handicapping the NFL is injuries. To do so accurately, one has to be able to accurately access the value of both the injured starter and his replacement, as well as accurately gauge the intangible/motivational effect that the replacement will have on the other active players. Obviously, player ratings are somewhat subjective in nature, but it is imperative that one assign both starting players and back-ups as accurate of a rating as possible in order to be successful handicapping the NFL. The best way to do this is to combine one's own assessment of a player's value with the ratings of the most respected NFL scouts /experts. The better the judge of football talent that one is, the more one should rely on his own assessment of the value of NFL players. The intangible/motivational effect of players being out tends to be minimized during the first couple weeks of the regular season as well as during the playoffs. This is due to the fact that during these time periods all players tend to be at a 100% motivational level and hence step-ups and letdowns are much less likely to occur.

There is one thing that is most worth noting when it comes to accurately accounting for injuries in the NFL. And that is as a general rule of thumb, the public tends to overreact to high profile players being out and underreact to low profile players being out. High profile players are usually hyped-up offensive skill position players or big name defensive players. Hence, when such high profile players are out not only does the line typically get adjusted to account for their absence, the line usually gets overadjusted. This is true not only because the public tends to overestimate the tangible value of such players, but also because the absence of such high profile players usually causes the other players on the team to "step up" their level of play. Hence, there is usually value betting on teams with a high profile player out (but only on the first game that such a player is out). In contrast, when high quality, low profile players are out the line is usually not adjusted (or if it is, it is under-adjusted). Hence, there is usually value betting against teams who are in such a situation.

Another thing worth noting when it comes to accounting for injuries in the NFL is the disproportionate impact that multiple starters from the same position has. A team can usually compensate for one player from a certain positionbeing out. But when two players from the same position are out at the same time (e.g. two linebackers or two defensive backs), it excessively taps teams' depth and significantly adversely affects their schemes. Hence, such a situation has an increasing scale of returns, whereby two solid starting linebackers being out is more than twice as adverse to a team as one solid starting linebacker being out.

Hopefully, the aforementioned tips will help you out with your NFL handicapping. If you want to go with a proven NFL 'capper with a very solid record over the last 13 NFL seasons, do the smart thing and purchase one of my pick packages (which I keep very affordable).

The NFL Needs to Lighten up on Penalties for Excessive Celebration

Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:53:00 GMT

A discussion of the NFL needing to significantly reduce the incidence of penalties for post Touchdown celebrations!

Its better late than never (I guess). Word is that the NFL is finally starting to consider the possibility of easing up on the incidence of penalties for post touchdown celebrations! I say its about fricking time! Post-touchdown celebrations that don't involve the scoring team taunting its opponent (and 98% of them don't) only enhance the gaming experience for both the teams involved as well as the fans. Therefore, I fail to see the logic or the rationale underlying the basis for penalizing teams for engaging in post-touchdown celebrations. I mean, as long as its not as long-winded as a Bill Clinton speech, what's the problem? I hope that a decision is made in the affirmative rather quickly, with an immediate cessation of frivolous penalty calls. Why this even happened in the first place and has gone on for as long as it has is beyond me. But then again, didn't someone once say "The uptight will always be with you!"? If not, someone should have said that. I mean, the next thing you know the U.S. government is going to outlaw the world's oldest profession and betting on NFL odds sporting events and airline security will not allow you to bring soup, shampoo, or shaving cream onto airplanes!

We will see what happens with this matter. Hopefully the NFL makes the sensible decision.

My Packers are the most Banged-up Team in the NFL

Thu, 14 Oct 2010 05:52:00 GMT

A Discussion on the Packers' Injury Situation

My Green Bay Packers were picked by many people to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in February. I was amongst the many people who made such a prognostication. However, with the current nightmare facing the Packers in regards to their injury situation, it is now clear that the Packers should no longer be considered the favorite to be playing in north Texas in February.

The Packers right now clearly have more injuries than any other NFL team. On offense, they are not only without their top running back Ryan Grant (which as I previously mentioned, is particularly devasting to the Pack since they lack depth at the running back position) but they are also without BOTH of their top two tight ends (star starter Jermichael Finley and former starter Donald Lee). With those three injuries the Packers go from being above average at both running back and tight end to being decidingly below average at both positions. The fact that star QB Aaron Rodgers might miss a game due to the concussion that he suffered against Washington is icing on the cake.

On defense, the situation is at least as bad. The Packers will be playing without their second best linebacker Nick Barnett for a long time, possibly the whole season. Also absent are their top two reserve defensive lineman due to injuries. And to top it all off, the defensive backfield is currently without the services of three of their top five players (Al Harris, Atari Bigby, and Morgan Burnett).

I have obviously downgraded the Packers' power rating that I have assigned to them due to their vast array of injuries. I have obviously done this with other teams with substantive injuries as well. Accounting for injuries is probably the toughest aspect of handicapping sports, particularly football. However, it is a task that one has to perform if he is going to be successful in making winning NFL picks, as I have over the past 12 years.

NORMALLY BRILLIANT BELICHICK MAKES UNWISE MOVE!

Thu, 07 Oct 2010 20:18:00 GMT

The Enigma of the Patriots Trading Randy Moss to the Vikings

I am the furthest thing from a Randy Moss fan (after all, he did moon the fans of my favorite team the Green Bay Packers during his first stint with the Vikings) but that won't stop me from seriously questioning the wisdom of the Patriots trading Moss to his original team. Usually when trades are made (especially during the season) it is a team that is either out of contention or with a surplus of good, proven players at a certain position trading a player at that position to a team with a shortage of good, proven players at that very position. Well, New England is certainly in contention as they are currently tied for the most wins in the NFL with three. And other than Moss, the Patriots only had one other good, proven wide receiver in Wes Welker, and Welker is no deep threat. Furthermore, Welker has never been very productive without a star wide receiver playing opposite of him to take away double coverage. In contrast, the Vikings already have 3 good wide receivers in Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian. So now the Vikings will have 4 good wide receivers and the Patriots will only have one.

Belichek vehemently denies that there was any rift between him/the Patriots organization and Moss. THEN WHY DID THEY TRADE HIM? Granted, Moss's contract ends at the end of this season, but as George Allen, Sr. used to say, "The future is now". Brady is no longer a spring chicken, he's probably only got a couple seasons left. And unlike when the Patriots went to the Super Bowl 4 times before during the Belichek-Brady era, they no longer have a good defense to help carry them. When you are in contention for another Super Bowl title and you have a mediocre defense at best and an offense with only a couple weapons, the last thing that you do is trade one of those couple weapons away. It really makes no sense, absent a very severe discipline and/or team chemistry problem caused by the presence of Randy Moss on the team.

So now Brett Favre will finally be granted his wish that he wanted 3 years ago during his last season with the Packers. He will get to finally play with his coveted weapon, Randy Moss. Of course, the Packers went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship game during the 2007 season without Moss. But Moss will make the Vikings' already good receiving corps even better. And it will further impress on the Vikings' players of the urge to win now, THIS SEASON! The Vikings' 0-2 (and now 1-2) start notwithstanding, they were legitimate Super Bowl contendors even before they acquired Randy Moss in the trade. Now, they are even more so. This makes the 3-way race for the NFC North Title (and possibly one of the top 2 seeds in the NFC playoffs) all the more exciting! It will be interesting to see what affect the trade has on the behavior of sports bettors when they make their NFL picks.

The Absurdity of Taking Away Reggie Bush's Heisman Trophy Award!

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 00:15:00 GMT

A Brief Blog in regards to why it was wrong to take away Reggie Bush's Heisman Trophy Award!

Taking away Reggie Bush's Heisman Trophy Award 5 years after the fact is beyond absurd! What's next, are they also going to take away the Pittsburgh Steelers' Super Bowl trophy from the 2005 NFL season because there were 3 bad calls in the Steelers' Super Bowl victory in February 2006 against the Seattle Seahawks that tipped the game towards the Steelers? That would be absurd, but not any more absurd than taking away Bush's Heisman Trophy award 5 years after the fact. Apparently, they have never heard of a little thing called statute of limitations. Why stop there? Why not take O.J. Simpson's Heisman trophy award away 42 years after the fact for chopping off the heads of two people? That would make more sense. What if Reggie Bush had passed away 6 months ago and then they found the evidence that they did that he was paid under the table? If that were the case, would they have taken away his Heisman's posthumously? I think it is safe to say that at least half of the Heisman winners were compensated under the table (in one form or another), just like it is safe to say that at least half of U.S. Presidents have been unfaithful to their wives. Why not take Thomas Jefferson's portrait off of Mt. Rushmore because he was unfaithful to his wife? The point is, in addition to being grossly absurd and petty, taking the Heisman Trophy away from Reggie Bush sets either a very bad precedent in which half of Heisman winners will be stripped of their trophies or a future manifestation of grandiose inconsistency. Obviously, both scenarios are unfavorable. I guess just like the poor will always be with us, so will the petty! It sure is a good thing that this football handicapper does a much better job of making NFL picks than the NCAA football rules committee makes stripping away a trophy 5 years after it has been awarded.

HANDICAPPING THE LOSS OF REGGIE BUSH!

Fri, 24 Sep 2010 13:39:00 GMT

HANDICAPPING THE LOSS OF REGGIE BUSH THROUGH INJURY!

The loss of Reggie Bush will hurt New Orleans' offense less than losing Ryan Grant will hurt Green Bay's offense, due primarily to the fact that New Orleans has depth at the running back position. Pierre Thomas is a proven rusher, and will be able to pick up most of the rushing slack resulting from the loss of Bush. However, not having a second rushing weapon as talented as Bush will hurt the Saints' rushing attack, and the loss of Bush as one more receiving target for Brees will certainly have a negative effect on the Saints' passing attack. On top of that, while Ryan Grant has no role in Green Bay's special teams, Reggie Bush does return punts for New Orleans, and is very effective at such a role.

Hence, while Bush's loss won't have the same negative impact on the Saints' offense as losing Ryan Grant will have on the Packers' offense, the likely resulting downgrade in the Saints' special teams play means that overall Bush's absence will hurt New Orleans to the same magnitude as Grant's offense will hurt Green Bay (again, I estimate that losing Bush will downgrade New Orleans' team performance about 1.5 points per game (half a field goal). It is worth noting that since Reggie Bush is a high profile player, the public is likely to overestimate the negative effect that losing him will have on the New Orleans Saints. Judging by the change in the line in the New Orleans/Atlanta game after Bush's injury, it appears that the public is estimating that the loss of Bush will cost the Saints an average of 2 to 2.5 points per game.

HANDICAPPING THE LOSS OF RYAN GRANT!

Fri, 24 Sep 2010 06:31:00 GMT

How will losing star Running Back Ryan Grant affect the Green Bay Packers?

Perhaps the most difficult part of handicapping the NFL is accounting for injuries. The loss of Green Bay Packers running back Ryan Grant for the remainder of the regular season will certainly hurt Green Bay in large part due to the fact that the Packers lack depth at that position. His replacement Brandon Jackson is unproven to say the least. While Ryan Grant averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season, Green Bay is averaging just 3.4 yards per rush this season when excluding the rushes that Ryan Grant had in the first half of Green Bay's first game against Philadelphia. Obviously, a 1 yard per rush dropoff would significantly adversely affect any team's offense. However, the fact that Green Bay is primarily a passing team even with Grant in the line-up and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is a very mobile quarterback will both serve to lessen the blow to their offense resulting from Grant's injury. Hence, I estimate that the loss of Ryan Grant will hurt Green Bay about a half a field goal per game, or about 1.5 points.

FOLLOW THE NFL WITH PROVEN WINNING NFL HANDICAPPER Steve "Cubby" Drumm

Sat, 27 Aug 2011 18:30:00 GMT

Steve Drumm's NFL Handicapping Blog Debut for NFL 2010 season.

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