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I had an absolutely terrific season in 2006, as I went 98-56-1 (64%) on all of my NFL picks, including 59-36-1 (62%) on my side plays and 37-19 on my teasers (always the standard 2 teams, 6 points). I also did very well in the 2007 season, as I went a documented 97-64-4 (60.25%) on all of my picks, including 56-36-4 (61%) on my side plays and 33-23 on my teaser plays. During the 2008 NFL season, I went a documented 55-43-4 on my side plays, 17-10 on teasers, 2-1 on Season Win Totals, and hence a very profitable 74-54-4 (58%) overall. I had a sub-par season in 2009, going 57-61-4 on all of my picks (34-41-2 on sides, 21-20 on teasers, and 2-0-2 on season win totals). In 2010 I rebounded to go a profitable 56-45-4 (55.4%) on all of my plays (41-32-4 on my sides and 15-13 on my teasers). In 2011 I went a documented 63-43-2 (59.4% - 35-31-2 on sides and 28-12 on teaser plays). In 2012 I went an admittedly sub-par 53-58-4 (48%) on all of my plays (32-33-4 on sides and 21-25 on teasers). This past season (2013) I went 63-59-4 (52%) on all of my plays (54-46-4 on sides, 9-13 on teasers). But everyone has mediocre seasons occasionally. What is important to look at is a handicapper's long-term track record. My record on all of my plays (counting sides, teasers, totals, and Team Season Win Totals) since the beginning of the 2006 NFL season is 561-440-27 (56%). Hence, dime bettors who bet all of my games during the past eight NFL seasons have netted a profit of $77,000 (counting the extra 10% for losses). There are very few other NFL 'cappers that have matched my documented long-term success, and if they have, they almost certainly charge more for their picks than I do. My picks go up 10 minutes after kickoff on my "Track Me" page, so you know that I am telling you the truth. Ask yourself this question: If a 'capper is really confident that he will win, why wouldn't he do this? Having one's picks go up on the 'net 10 minutes after kickoff isn't just the best way to prove that one is a winner, it is the only way. Don't be foolish and purchase one of my pick packages today. You'll probably make a killing, as I have during 10 out of the past 13 NFL seasons.
I have 2 things that most sports 'cappers don't: talent and integrity. I won't insult your intelligence by claiming to win 75% of my picks and you'll never hear me say "This game is a lock"! Nor will I tell you that I've been on Jay Leno twice. What I do offer are good, solid NFL picks that are virtually guaranteed to make you money in the long-run (notice how I said virtually guaranteed, in life there are no guarantees).
Such picks are based on a proven system with a proven track record of success. Such a system is not too simple, not too complicated, but just right! To paraphrase Rainman "I'm an excellent handicapper, I'm an excellent handicapper!" In fact, one of the reasons why I decided to go into the sports handicapping industry is because I like my competition, or lack there of.
Unlike most sports handicappers/touts, I'm an NFL-only picker. Since I specialize in the NFL, I am able to focus all of my attention and energy on the NFL. This way, I don't claim to be all things to all people. And since the NFL is the sport that is not only the most heavily bet on but also the sport that the public does the worst at, that makes the service that I provide an even hotter commodity. And because I am a contrarian by nature, it should come as no surprise that what the public does the worst at, I do the best at!
Steve 'Cubby' Drumm
How To Account For Injuries When Handicapping the NFL!
One of the most difficult things to account for when handicapping the NFL is injuries. To do so accurately, one has to be able to accurately access the value of both the injured starter and his replacement, as well as accurately gauge the intangible/motivational effect that the replacement will have on the other active players. Obviously, player ratings are somewhat subjective in nature, but it is imperative that one assign both starting players and back-ups as accurate of a rating as possible in order to be successful handicapping the NFL. The best way to do this is to combine one's own assessment of a player's value with the ratings of the most respected NFL scouts /experts. The better the judge of football talent that one is, the more one should rely on his own assessment of the value of NFL players. The intangible/motivational effect of players being out tends to be minimized during the first couple weeks of the regular season as well as during the playoffs. This is due to the fact that during these time periods all players tend to be at a 100% motivational level and hence step-ups and letdowns are much less likely to occur.
There is one thing that is most worth noting when it comes to accurately accounting for injuries in the NFL. And that is as a general rule of thumb, the public tends to overreact to high profile players being out and underreact to low profile players being out. High profile players are usually hyped-up offensive skill position players or big name defensive players. Hence, when such high profile players are out not only does the line typically get adjusted to account for their absence, the line usually gets overadjusted. This is true not only because the public tends to overestimate the tangible value of such players, but also because the absence of such high profile players usually causes the other players on the team to "step up" their level of play. Hence, there is usually value betting on teams with a high profile player out (but only on the first game that such a player is out). In contrast, when high quality, low profile players are out the line is usually not adjusted (or if it is, it is under-adjusted). Hence, there is usually value betting against teams who are in such a situation.
Another thing worth noting when it comes to accounting for injuries in the NFL is the disproportionate impact that multiple starters from the same position has. A team can usually compensate for one player from a certain positionbeing out. But when two players from the same position are out at the same time (e.g. two linebackers or two defensive backs), it excessively taps teams' depth and significantly adversely affects their schemes. Hence, such a situation has an increasing scale of returns, whereby two solid starting linebackers being out is more than twice as adverse to a team as one solid starting linebacker being out.
Hopefully, the aforementioned tips will help you out with your NFL handicapping. If you want to go with a proven NFL 'capper with a very solid record over the last 13 NFL seasons, do the smart thing and purchase one of my pick packages (which I keep very affordable).
Posted: Friday, 07 October 2011 10:44 PM
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